Derrick Rose As Number One Pick Not Michael Beasley

In 2007, one question dominated the months before the NBA draft: Who is the No. 1 player in the draft?

Greg Oden, a once-in-a-decade center prospect?

Or Kevin Durant, who had been arguably the most productive freshman in the history of college basketball?

After more than a month of deliberation, the Portland Trail Blazers decided to take Oden with the top pick.

This year, again, the focus is on two players.

The consensus two months ago was that Kansas State forward Michael Beasley was, far and away, the likely choice for the No. 1 pick. Beasley had a freshman season that, in almost every way, was even more impressive than Durant's. He ended the season as the country's leading rebounder and one of its top scorers -- impressive feats for an 18-year-old freshman playing in an elite conference such as the Big 12.

Beasley, a 6-foot-10 power forward, has the physical tools and basketball skills to be a great NBA player. He's a prolific scorer both inside and outside, with elite athleticism, great range on his jump shot, the power to bang in the paint, the speed to run the break and the nastiness to mix it up down low -- with the cockiness to think that he can deliver a victory for his team every night.

But a late charge by Memphis point guard Derrick Rose has dramatically changed the game. Rose, not Beasley, was a dominant force in the NCAA tournament, putting on a performance that would've garnered him MOP honors for the tournament had Memphis not blown a late second-half lead in the championship game versus Kansas.

Rose is considered a cross between Chris Paul and Deron Williams, with excellent size, athleticism and leadership abilities. The lack of a consistent jump shot is the only real mark against him.

In the last 20 years, only one player shorter than 6-6 -- Allen Iverson -- has ever gone No. 1. When in doubt, NBA GMs almost always opt for a big man. However, as we watch point guards such as Paul, Williams and Tony Parker dominate in the playoffs, the thinking is beginning to change. It's no longer considered a given that a big man is the key to winning in the NBA.

Over the past few months, I've talked to scouts and/or executives from almost every team in the draft lottery in an effort to determine what each would do with the No. 1 pick. Some were open, while some refused to answer.

With character questions still swirling around Beasley, and Rose gaining stock in the eyes of NBA front-office decision-makers, Beasley is no longer the favorite to be the No. 1 pick -- and he has dropped to No. 2 on our Top 100.

With about a week to go before the NBA draft lottery, Rose has emerged as the most likely candidate for the No. 1 pick.

The race remains close: We're projecting seven lottery teams opting for Rose and seven for Beasley. But if you break down the likelihood of each team's landing the No. 1 pick, it's a landslide for Rose. According to our latest intel, Rose has a 66.3 percent chance of becoming the No. 1

FYI - Behind Sports

NBA Draft - New Big Men To Become The Best Pros?

Michael Beasley has Chris Webber's skills and Gilbert Arenas' personality. Does that make you psyched or scared?

The numbers support the case of Kansas State's Michael Beasley being the best big-man prospect.

What's not to love? The sweet lefty stroke that pulls the D away from the basket? The handle borrowed from a shifty guard? Those coast-to-coast forays that start with a space-clearing rebound and end with an emphatic slam?

Man, that Derrick Coleman was a beast. When the Nets made him the top pick in 1990, they were giddy with visions of his becoming the best power forward ever. These days, though, he's a warning beacon of untapped potential—one that is especially relevant to the upcoming draft.

Eighteen years later, Michael Beasley is offering Coleman's same dizzying blend of grace, power and skill. On the night of the draft lottery, ESPN flashed a Beasley/Coleman split screen with both players sporting the same shooting form. As soon as Beasley banked one of the most spectacular freshman seasons in NCAA history (26.2 ppg, 12.4 rpg), the expectations matched too. "Twenty and 10 from day one," predicts a West GM.

But there are those who think Beasley may have a little too much in common with Coleman. Like his predecessor, B-Easy has been dogged by questions about his drive and devotion. "At times he gives the impression of having a little more than he's giving," says another GM. Still, if Coleman's career never matched the hype, neither the Bulls, the Heat nor anyone else who winds up in the top two (Beaze won't slip past the second pick) is likely to be swayed by precedent.

Talent is only one of the factors that determine whether a player will flame out, reserve a place in Springfield or fall somewhere in between. Grit. Determination. Refusing to accept failure. They sound like trite buzzwords and phrases, but they're exactly what separates franchise saviors from the rest of the pack. In the NBA, you are what you do—and do again. "You don't have to worry about that," Beasley says. "There is nobody who's going to play harder. I don't want to be the next anybody. I want to be the best there ever was, plain and simple. No disrespect to MJ."

Beasley has backed up those words with intense predraft prep. From two-a-day on-court drills to strenuous upper-body conditioning and repetitive hand-eye work, he's sweating to squash the skepticism, even as he is annoyed he has to. "So how did I get this good?" he asks the naysayers. Just as he can look as if he is going half speed even as he dominates at both ends of the floor, it's equally tough to get a read on his off-court persona. For one thing, you never know if he's pulling your leg. Beasley is as accomplished a goofball as he is a baller. At Kansas State, postpractice high jinks were the norm: impromptu dodgeball games, mock interviews, dunking contests on lowered rims. A YouTube clip that follows his ongoing fascination with an iPod that keeps showing up at his press conferences has drawn more than 30,000 hits. "I'm not a serious person, I like to have fun," he says. "But I know when to turn it off."


Does he? Two years ago, at Oak Hill Academy, he and a teammate had a bet about who could write his name in more places on campus. The prank ended when Beasley signed the principal's truck. All he got was a lecture, but the rest of us got a glimpse of a guy who may not know quite where to draw the line.

"People forget he's a 19-year-old kid," says former K-State teammate Clent Stewart. Still, Stewart says that Beasley never had a problem getting on a guy for not going hard, and that the public doesn't know about all those times the big guy dived for loose balls in practice or cried after tough losses. And Beasley's mother, Fatima Smith, says, "It's not like he's going to be pulling people's shorts down in the middle of a game." Fair enough, but a lot less will be too much in a locker room full of grown men.

Coleman says Beasley can work out as much as he wants, but none of it will matter if he doesn't spend as much time managing his image. First impressions last. DC clashed with Nets coach Bill Fitch from the start, and it earned him a rep he never shook. He thinks Beasley needs someone to make him aware of consequences. "It's the one thing I didn't have," Coleman says.

Beasley has Bruce Shingler, a 26-year-old former K-State administrative assistant who has been hired to ease the star's transition. "I'm not his babysitter," says Shingler, even though he will move wherever his charge lands. "My goal is to get him to understand that professionalism counts."

He chugs a blue sports drink and removes a soaked T-shirt, revealing his newest tattoo. It reads: MARRIED TO THE GAME.

What's not to love?

FYI - Behind Sports